Geoff Kendrick, the Head of FX Research at Standard Chartered, has offered a bullish outlook on Bitcoin, suggesting that the approval of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has the potential to propel the leading cryptocurrency to unprecedented heights.
In a note released on Monday, Kendrick expressed optimism that such regulatory approval could result in a remarkable surge, with Bitcoin’s value potentially skyrocketing by over 300% by the conclusion of the coming year.
Bitcoin ETF Decision: Wall Street Awaits
This forecast has captured the attention of Wall Street, especially as the financial industry eagerly awaits the Securities and Exchange Commission’s decision, expected by Wednesday.
The impending deadline adds an air of anticipation, marking a crucial moment for the potential integration of BTC ETFs into traditional financial markets.
Conditional upon anticipated ETF inflows materializing, Kendrick projects an end-2025 BTC price nearing $200,000. This scenario hinges on 437,000 to 1.32 million additional Bitcoins held in spot US ETFs by year-end 2024, translating to potential inflows of $50-$100 billion in 2024 alone.
Standard Chartered posting some moon math! $200,000 coming pic.twitter.com/IQueMhjgiP
— Lark Davis (@TheCryptoLark) January 9, 2024
This represents a staggering 4.3x increase from its current value, leaving some investors salivating at the prospect of extraordinary returns. However, a note of caution comes from Standard Chartered executives, who compared the projected trajectory to the historical performance of gold ETPs.
These, they noted, took seven to eight years to reach a similar valuation multiplier after their launch in 2004. The stark contrast in timelines raises questions about the feasibility of Kendrick’s prediction and underscores the inherent uncertainty surrounding long-term cryptocurrency forecasts.BTCUSD currently trading at $46,643 on the daily chart: TradingView.com
Standard Chartered Expects Swift Crypto Surge
While historical data suggests potential Bitcoin price gains similar to those following US spot ETF approval, Standard Chartered anticipates a significantly accelerated timeline of 1-2 years. This rapid appreciation is attributed to their conviction of a more agile and rapidly developing BTC ETF market compared to previous iterations.
“We use this 4.3x increase as basis for Bitcoin, but we expect BTC gains to occur during a short one- to two-year period because we expect the BTC ETF market to mature more quickly,” Kendrick said.
Currently, Bitcoin’s trading price stands at $46,650, accompanied by a market capitalization of $860 billion.
Meanwhile, as Bitcoin’s price steadily grew, analysts have been making optimistic projections for the king coin.
In 2015, when I bought my first btc at $400, people said bitcoin was dead.
In 2019, when btc was $4000, I wrote the S2F article, calling for $55k btc. People said I was crazy.
Today, btc is $40k, and S2F model predicts $532k after 2024 halving. People say it is impossible.
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) January 7, 2024
An analyst who developed the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model has made a noteworthy prediction that Bitcoin might exceed $100,000 in 2024 and then rise to $532,000 in 2025.
The forecast was generated during a period when Bitcoin ETFs were a widely debated and popular subject in the market.
If the approval of ETFs is granted, investors might anticipate a surge in BTC’s price, potentially reaching unprecedented levels.
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