How Low Can The Bitcoin Price Go?

Bitcoin (BTC) price has declined by more than 8% in a week and 12% over the last 30 days after setting a new record high of around $73,835 on March 14.

Data from cryptodirectories Markets Pro and TradingView shows that the BTC price fell from a high of $64,727 on April 30, dropping 6.5% to reach an intraday low of $60,505.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin’s price drop coincides with a lackluster response to the market debut of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in Hong Kong and the growing stagflation fears mount in the U.S. The continued stalling of flows into the U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are also exacerbating the downward pressure on BTC price.

Let’s explore how low the Bitcoin price can go in the ongoing corrective cycle.

Analysts set targets at $42,000

Bitcoin has displayed unprecedented price action in 2024 by hitting all-time highs before the halving event. This has left market participants wondering whether the flagship cryptocurrency has reached its top.

Currently, BTC price is trading 17% below its all-time high and has dropped 7% since its supply subsidy halving on April 20, and some analysts are now convinced that the cryptocurrency will descend into the low $40,000 range.

In comments on X on April 29, independent trader and X user Ali attempted to decipher whether the BTC price had reached a market top.

He drew comparisons to previous halving cycles, when spikes in Bitcoin realized profits have historically coincided with market tops.

Referencing Glassnode data that showed that when Bitcoin hit all-time highs on March 14, “realized profits skyrocketed to $3.52 billion,“ Ali noted that similar levels were observed during the 2021 bull market.

Bitcoin realized cap and realized profit. Source: Glassnode

Before calling a market top, the trader said he was waiting for another confirmation involving a sustained close below the BTC’s short-term holder’s realized price.

“If the market top is confirmed, $BTC could drop toward $51,530 or even $42,700!”Bitcoin long/short-term on-chain cost basis. Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin catches a breather in a reaccumulation range

Bitcoin has defied its history by turning down after its 2024 halving, but independent analyst Rekt Capital suggested that the drawdown remains an important part of a classic bull market setup.

In a chart uploaded to X, he compared the current BTC cycle with previous halvings, saying that the price behaved in exactly the same way, “even producing a downside wick below the Range Low.”

According to Rekt Capital, the BTC price is currently in a “Re-accumulation Range” that usually develops before the halving, with most of it forming after the halving.

“The goal now is for Bitcoin to move sideways to catch a breather, for the market to cool off after fantastic Pre-Halving price performance.”Phases of Bitcoin halving. Source: Rekt Capital

He further explained that the “range concludes with a breakout from it several weeks and even months after the Halving.”

Related: Bitcoin sub-$60K levels in focus after daily crypto liquidations near $300M

The 200-day EMA provides the last line of defense for Bitcoin

From a technical point of view, Bitcoin’s price was sitting on immediate support from the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $59,944.

Losing this support would cause the price to drop from the current levels, collecting the demand side liquidity below it toward the 200-day EMA currently sitting at $51,900. Such a move would represent a 15% decline from the current levels.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 200-day EMA also aligns with Bitcoin’s horizontal support zone between $50,000 and $52,000. This support, after being held in February, preceded a 42% surge in price to all-time highs.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of cryptodirectories.