A quant has explained how a specific Bitcoin funding rates pattern has preceded uptrends in the asset’s price during recent months.
The Bitcoin 72-Hour MA Funding Rates Pattern That May Kick Off Uptrends
As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the price has started rising recently whenever the metric has been near zero inside the negative zone. The “funding rate” is an indicator that measures the periodic fee that traders on the Bitcoin futures market are currently exchanging with each other.
When the value of this metric is negative, it means the short contract holders are currently paying a premium to the long holders in order to hold onto their positions. Such a trend suggests that bearish sentiment is more dominant in the market right now.
On the other hand, positive values of the indicator imply the longs are paying a fee to the shorts at the moment, and hence, the holders with a bullish mentality outweigh those with a bearish one.
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 72-hour moving average (MA) Bitcoin funding rate over the last few months:Looks like the 72-hour MA value of the metric has been positive in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant
As you can see in the above graph, the quant has marked the relevant portions of the trend for the 72-hour MA Bitcoin funding rates. It seems like there have been a few instances during the last few months where the indicator has just turned negative (that is, still near the zero mark) and the price of the cryptocurrency has followed up by catching some upwards momentum shortly after.
While the left and right instances in the chart had the metric coming back inside the positive zone not too long after forming this pattern, the middle occurrence saw it go much deeper inside the negative territory first, and it was only after the initial leg up in the price that the funding rate became positive again.
Based on this, it seems like a neutral to a negative value of the 72-hour MA Bitcoin funding has provided the proper ground for the price to rally during these last few months.
Recently, the indicator has had positive values, implying that the total number of long positions has been overwhelming that of the short positions. Though, in the last few days, the metric has been gradually going down.
Despite this drawdown, however, the 72-hour Bitcoin funding rate is still significantly above the zero line, meaning that if the pattern that has apparently held during the last few months has to form again, more bearish positions would need to be opened on the market to nudge the balance towards the negative zone.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $28,600, down 6% in the last week.The value of the asset seems to have sharply gone down in recent days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com