Why Is The Crypto Market Up Today?

The cryptocurrency market is up today, with the total market capitalization rising 2.80% in the last 24 hours to reach $2.18 trillion on May 3. That includes gains from top-ranking coins Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), which have risen around 2.52% and 1.40% in the same period.

Price performance of top crypto assets in the last 24 hours. Source: Coin360

Top catalysts driving the crypto market upward today include a less hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve and PayPal’s further expansion into the crypto sector with a new partnership.

Bond traders see first rate cut in November

At the end of its two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on May 1, the Fed clarified that it won’t raise interest rates in the near future. Consequently, bond traders now see the first rate cut in November as opposed to July at the beginning of 2024.

The adjustment occurred during the strongest two-day surge in short-end Treasuries since January. Yields on two-year notes, which are highly responsive to interest rate changes, have dropped 331 basis points to 4.88% from their weekly top on May 1.

U.S. 1 and US10Y versus TOTAL crypto market capitalization daily performance chart. Source: TradingView

At the same time, the crypto market has rebounded 7% since May 1, including the gains witnessed today. This illustrates a resurgence in risk-taking sentiment among cryptocurrency traders, further encouraged by falling yields on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note.

Related: Bitcoin bottom in, now headed for a ‘slow grind higher’ — Arthur Hayes

Generally, when bond yields—viewed as the safest investments—decline, investors are more willing to pursue riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies and stocks.

PayPal expands its crypto ecosystem

The crypto market’s ongoing recovery coincides with the news of PayPal’s partnership with crypto app MoonPay, which would enable the payment giant to offer its 426 million U.S. customers to trade over 110 cryptocurrencies.

TOTAL market capitalization four-hour performance chart. Source: TradingView

When a major financial player like PayPal enhances its crypto services, it can validate the market’s legitimacy in the eyes of more conservative investors and the public at large. As a result, this piece of news is contributing to the crypto market gains today, as traders and investors anticipate increased demand and adoption.

Previously, PayPal provided options for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and its own U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin, PYUSD. The company recently announced that PYUSD is available for international transfers via its Xoom service.

Post-halving fractal

The recent gains in the crypto market, including today’s performance, are part of typical consolidation trends observed immediately after Bitcoin’s halvings.

TOTAL crypto market capitalization weekly performance chart. Source: TradingView

Investors and market watchers anticipate a potential increase post-2024 halving based on past patterns. The launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) in the U.S. and Hong Kong has furthered these bullish views.

On May 3, the crypto market formed a Hammer candlestick pattern, characterized by the formation of the downside wick whose size is more than twice the length of the candle body — indicating bullish rejection post-halving.

TOTAL crypto market capitalization daily performance chart. Source: TradingView

Technical analysis

Today’s crypto market gains appear as various indicators suggest the market is leaning bullish.

For instance, the chart below shows the market cap rebounding from the lower trendline of what appears to be a bull flag. This bullish continuation pattern resolves when the price breaks above the upper trendline and rises by as much as the height of the previous uptrend.

As a result of this technical rule, the crypto market’s next upside target is at around $3 trillion.

TOTAL crypto market capitalization daily performance chart. Source: TradingView

Adding to the bullish outlook is the proximity of the rebound to the market’s multi-month ascending trendline support. The fact that the market cap has bounced off this line reinforces the support level, suggesting that the long-term bullish trend remains intact.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.