Bitcoin down 20%+ from all-time highs — Is BTC price headed to $50K?

Bitcoin down 20%+ from all-time highs — Is BTC price headed to $50K?

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Bitcoin’s price is down around 21% from its all-time high. But while this remains in line with previous bull market corrections, Bitcoin could still fall to the $50,000 mark in the near term, based on historic patterns. 

BTC is down 25% from its all-time high

Bitcoin (BTC) price fell over 12% on the weekly chart to $57,780 as of 1:10 p.m. in UTC, which is 21.6% lower thatn its all-time high of $73,750, reached on March 14, according to CoinMarketCap data.

BTC/USDT, 1-day chart. Source: CoinMarketCap

The current correction is the deepest retrace of this cycle, according to popular Bitcoin analyst Rekt Capital, who wrote in a May 1 X post:

“This current retrace is officially the deepest (-23.6%), recently eclipsing the -22.9% retrace from early 2023. […] Bitcoin has already eclipsed the deepest retrace in the cycle and is 13 days away from equalling the longest retrace in this cycle as well.”

The pullback is 48 days long, compared to the longest retrace of 63 days during this cycle.

BTC/USD, 1-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital

Similar corrections have occurred during previous Bitcoin rallies. During the 2018 bull run, Bitcoin saw five corrections of over 30% and an additional 29% correction, according to pseudonymous Bitcoin trader Sister Laura’s April 30 X post:

BTC/USD, 1-week chart. 2016-2018, Source: Sister Laura

Related: Tether nets record $4.5B profit in Q1 2024 — majority from Bitcoin and gold

Can Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in the short term?

Bitcoin lost a significant support level at the $59,000 mark, which also acted as the short-term holder realized price (STH-RP), or the average inflow price of the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Losing the $59,000 mark could lead to Bitcoin revisiting the $50,000 mark, according to Jag Kooner, head of derivatives at Bitfinex. He told cryptodirectories:

“While price predictions are not appropriate based on these, the STH-RP is a crucial support level for BTC to hold and on losing it, or the average ETF buyer cost basis, there is a high likelihood that there is a cascade down to low $50,000s.”

Over $750 million worth of cumulative leveraged long positions would be liquidated across all exchanges if Bitcoin’s price fell below $60,000, according to Coinglass.

Bitcoin exchange liquidation map. Source: Coinglass

Bitcoin price fell below the $60,000 mark days after the debut of the first spot Bitcoin ETFs in Hong Kong, which amassed $12.4 million in daily trading volume during the first day.

The debut of the Hong Kong ETFs generated lower-than-expected trading volumes due to the difficult macroeconomic conditions, according to James Wo, the founder and CEO of DFG.

Wo told cryptodirectories:

“These ETFs were launched in different market conditions. U.S. ETFs were launched earlier this year when the market was pricing in around six rate cuts in 2024. Given the sticky inflation data, markets are now pricing in only one rate cut, which saw crypto prices tumbling recently.”

Related: Bitcoin outperforms Tesla stock for the first time since 2019

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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